Tuesday, August 9, 2011

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  • hydboy77
    09-23 06:13 PM
    The only missing information to give an almost 90% accurate prediction of the visa bulletin movement are
    1. Will DOS do spillover every quarter or only once every year?
    2. What would be the number of eb2 and eb1 visa demand from ROW from October 2009 to September 2010?

    the answer to question 2 can be obtained by getting the number of pending PERM Eb2 petitions with DOL, if we get the answer to question 1 from DOS then we can predict the visa bulletin with almost 90% + accuracy.

    I don’t think DOS will do a quarter spillover. If DOS does not do a quarter spillover then it will disastrous for EB2 India because if DOL releases a ton of pending EB2 ROW perm applications they have been holding up for over an year in June-July-august 2010 time then DOS might not do a spillover at all for Eb2 India.


    Thanks Sachug22.

    Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin & Jan 2010 Visa Bulletin should give us clear picture about EB2 - I forward movement (if USCIS does spill over every Quarter this fiscal year - Most likely I expect the spill over to occur every Quarter this fiscal year).

    Other important indicator would be the spillover received by Eb2 - I till Sep 2009. If spillover is more(clearing majority of 2004 - Jan 2005 cases) that would be the best case scenario.

    Overall things look very positive.





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  • karthkc
    07-23 01:01 PM
    I posted this message on another thread and got slammed - :confused:. All the discussions here are just speculations.. no one really has access to real numbers.. so take it easy this time :p

    As we do not have any real numbers my predictions are based on EB2 numbers from (assuming the data to be a true random sample)

    Here are number of EB2-I I485 pending cases by year

    2007-100
    2006-150
    2005-125
    2004-200
    2003-50 (250 have been approved)

    USCIS has approved about 450 EB2-I cases last year. A conservative estimate of approval rate going forward would be 30 cases per month. Based on this the movement..
    2003 cases will be approved by Sep '08
    2004 cases by Apr '09
    2005 cases by Sep '09
    2006 cases by Dec '09

    Good Luck !!!

    This does not make sense at all.. cases are a miniscule portion of actual USCIS approvals and a rate of 30 cases per month would mean most of USCIS personnel are on vacation for summer :)





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  • hydboy77
    06-04 01:13 PM
    This is what I was also proposing in another thread. we should ask for an administrative fix where once the application is pre adjudicated the applicant should be left alone and not issed any Employment verification letter rfe, or semilar\same job restrictions if they are back logged because of country quota and face multiple year wait, this way atleast it will give people some breating space, the way the system if set up right now, EAD, 485 pre adjudication, I140 approval are all useless if you keep getting Employment verification letter rfe and same semilar job rquirement. Without visa recapure it is going to take atleast 10 years for Eb3 and Eb2 india, in the next 10 years you will keep getting Employement verifivation letter rfe and semilar and same job requirement, there is no way anybody can survive that for 10 yeears. Administrative fix like this can happen without passing a law, for example USCIS started issuing 2 year EAD for retrogressed applicants as an administrative fix. We dont even need a interim green card we can continue on EAD with the administrative fix to exempt cases which have been preadjucated (485) from Employment verification letter RFE and same and semilar job requirement.

    I just used t he term Interim GC to convey the idea, it could be named anything. EAD is a also a partial GC, it gives you rights of a GC holder pending administrative processing of your application - to work with any employer. The interim GC may provide all rights of a GC holder, awaiting final count in the legal register (due to legal need of numeric limitations) and the final card, just like a temporary driver license you get immediately after the road test. The idea is that once this stage is passed, no further questions on employment, etc. should be asked.





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  • extra_mint
    03-27 02:55 PM
    Indian democracy can throw many surprises
    I think UPA will get 273 and if that's the case then MMS
    If NDA get's 273 (which is highly unlikely) then Advani (no Modi...otherwise also Modi's communal qualifications are pretty widespread outside of Gujarat). I like the guy but seriously PM of India and CM of Gujarat are 2 different things.

    And if Third front comes to power (they just need around 200 as once they get 200 there will be breakaway groups from UPA and NDA so they can touch 273)

    then we will see real democracy (read lust for power)

    First 6 month Mayawati >> Followed by Jayalalita for 6 months >> Followed by some one from LEFT (comorades work in groups..not sure who will be graced by politburo)

    Above cycle will be repetitive >> and Govt will collapse when Mayawati will complete her second 6 months Tenure.



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  • unseenguy
    08-16 02:31 PM
    Does our people have the balls to do that?

    Thats the problem, our people dont have balls.





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  • gc_on_demand
    09-14 03:41 PM
    What are the hopes for individuals who missed Jul 07. In my case my labor got approved in Oct 07 and we are still waiting for the date to be current to be able to file for EAD / AP. Based on the figures that you show, I believe that all 2006 people should get cleared in the coming year and the traffic for 2007 & 2008 is quite less. What are the predictions for the PD movement till year end?

    Your PD will be current by Sep 2010. Or if you are lucky you may get GC by that time.

    If you get GC donate to IV.



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  • engineer
    07-04 09:47 AM
    Anybody who got contact at NPR or anybody who want to take a challenge and work on contacting NPR and telling them about our story.

    http://www.npr.org/about/pitch/

    Sent NPR following:

    Dear [Insert Name]

    Re: Administration Slams Door on Thousands of Legal Immigrants

    Per US DOS July 2007 Visa Bulletin that came out on June 2007, all Employment based categories were going to be "Current" starting from July 2nd. Based on this information, many of legal immigrants like me, with approved labor certifications, worked day and night, spent enormous time and money to prepare our applications for filing Adjustment of status (AOS) application (I-485). This involves, going through a medical checkup, getting shots for required immunizations and paying hundreds of dollars in lawyer fees.

    The applications were all ready to be filed but against all odds, DOS issued a notice in the morning on July 2nd, informing that no AOS applications will be accepted. The visa bulletin has basically been revised and no employment based visa numbers are available for any legal worker. It states that visa numbers are no longer available until October 1st when the FY 2008 would start. This is such a waste of so much money and efforts from the legal workers, some of whom were waiting for more than 3 years to file for their AOS applications. They finally saw a hope and prepared themselves, but even before the day came, their hopes were taken away from them. It is amazing how the DOS and USCIS can make such a big mistake in their predictions about the visa number availability.

    The visa bulletin for June had moved the visa availability dates (referred to as priority dates) by more than a month for certain categories. A number of applications for AOS were therefore expected to be filed in the month of June. However, DOS still calculated an abundance of visa numbers and therefore moved all the dates for all categories to "current" for July. And now this morning, the visa bulletin has been revised to make visa numbers unavailable to everyone. This does not look right and begs for an investigation. The whole system of generating cut-off dates is not defined and there is every reason to believe that the dates are manipulated to serve certain hidden agendas.

    Please do a news story into this matter to help legal workers who are in USA for many years. Some of us have been working in the US for more than 10 years and still do not have permanent residency. We are paying our taxes and are law abiding members of the society. So we request President to intervene in this matter.

    If you like more information, please contact me at [email address] or [cell phone no].

    We are part of Immigration Voice is a non-profit organization (501 (c) (4) approved) working to alleviate the problems faced by legal high-skilled foreign workers in the United States. We act as an interface between this set of immigrants and the legislative and executive branches of the government. We work towards eliminating procedural hurdles by interfacing with the government branches that formulate policy

    References:
    US DOS July 2007 Visa Bulletin:
    http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3258.html

    US DOS revised bulletin for July 2007:
    http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3263.html

    Administration Slams Door on Thousands of Legal Immigrants: AILA Condemns Agencies� Bait and Switch
    http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=22804





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  • senthil1
    09-26 08:43 AM
    US economy situation is alarming. I doubt they will consider any immigration related bill until financial crisis stablises.2009 will be the key.Economy has to stablise. If not anti immigrants will block any bill citing the economy as the reason. If unemployment increases every month then any immigration reform is distance possiblity.Illegal immigrants are is getting publicity every year by rally for past 4 years but nothing happened. Pro immigrants are trying to block E-verify and some other anti immigration reforms. Anti immigrants are trying to block pro immigrant reforms. So any immigration reforms will be stalled until some compromise reached by moderates

    no comments from anyone on this ..I guess most of us are resigned to our fate ? no problems though since I have also given up ...GC will come when it has to ...it is better to have plan B and plan C ..(i.e. be ready to accept that there is a good chance that getting GC will become more complicated esp if there are layoff's everywhere ..I guess there is already a thread regarding issues faced by people who had to use AC21)
    ------
    I guess most of us are angry and resigned to fate ..what if we come with a shock therapy campaign ..i.e. get thousands of legal immigrant signatures ...and say we are fed up with the broken system and we intend to give up and leave US soon .. if this gets lot of publicity then atleast someone (maybe one of the presidential candidate) will come up with a solid promise to do something ??
    I have posted this in other threads to get more inputs ...I guess we need something dramatic especially when our cause is dying ...point is to get maximum publicity ..maybe flowers + the intent to leave USA



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  • neoklaus
    02-15 10:39 AM
    the law does say that the GC numbers expire if unused.
    once expired USCIS has no power to use them.
    you need to study this deeper if you want to consider a challenge.

    ppl voting emotionally, mostly.

    Emotionally I'm pro, logically-contra.
    We have to change subject, lawsuit not for recapturing numbers but against modern days slavery or something...have to think more and consult with lawyers.

    Class action lawsuit- very tricky thing.





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  • ItIsNotFunny
    06-27 09:39 AM
    I don't see any authencity of this rumour.



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  • admin
    12-31 07:22 PM
    Very good find logiclife. Hope we can get such good points across to our legislators.





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  • BharatPremi
    12-14 12:51 PM
    If they change the current law to favor Indians, then it will be disciminatory to other nationals. Think the other way..

    You may be almost 100% right and everybody is trying to take the sense out of this. Lazy*and Mark almost have given the proof that "We can't do this"..

    Good, we will not have a problem if we get assured about this 100%.

    But one thing I do not understand is your interpretation (in quots)... If at all anything we are asking is what "Remove Per Country based ceilings" but how can somebody with high skill translate that into what you quoted?

    If that happens, Indians will be benefited , yes that is not a favor, and if at all for the sake of argument even if we "tag" the word "favored"...Chinese,Mexicans,Philipinos will also be "favored".. So if they remove this ceiling then in reality it would be a "Equal ground for every national" And in that nobody can argue that "It is discriminatory to other nationals".



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  • poorslumdog
    05-02 11:30 PM
    What a massacre of history! LTTE has killed anyone who has opposed them. They killed Tamils who joined the govt. They killed Tamils who opposed them. they killed Sri Lankan Tamils, they killed Indian Tamils. They have believed in terror at every point of history. It is a terrorist organisation. I believe a lot of Tamils got killed ar Sriperambudar in the rally Rajiv was killed. Sonia on her part appealed for clemency to one of the accused who was sentenced to be hanged because she had a small child. Your passion and facts are getting mixed up here.

    You Moron...open your Freaking eyes and read all the posts here. No one is supporting the LTTE. Why do you deviate from the topic again and again. We are talking about the civilians getting killed...but your freaking mind things and talks only about LTTE.





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  • hiralal
    06-11 11:04 PM
    your views are correct and analysis looks o.k. too the problem is even the genuine ones get flushed away ..survival of the fittest is not working now at all !!! say a person from worldwide comes in eb3 and say he is just a car mechanic (I know few from south korea who are in this situation) ..they get GC faster than Indian / Chinese EB2 / EB3 applicant (with 10 years experience and good bank balance)
    and Karma means ..do your work / duty and don't worry about results ..we need that ..i.e SEVERAL SMALL Campaigns (since big is not possible now due to members leaving IV / getting dejected that nothing is happening etc etc
    let us not analyze and discuss too much ..we talk a lot and hence the karma that we get is more talk from so called Experts ..lets do numerous small campaigns ..at the very least people will start coming back to IV plus new memberships
    again people are discussing the past and getting stuck in it and my post gets buried ..friends are you listening ??? enough talk !!!!!



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  • PlainSpeak
    01-14 02:38 PM
    Please, please, please share your ideas - having created the curiosity, now please do not deprive us of your ideas. Just keep them specific and actionable.
    My friend gcdream 2001 please read through the whole article and understand that there is some action which needs to take place before i even open my mouth about any ideas.

    BTW the negentive count is now 3500.





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  • unitednations
    02-18 08:29 PM
    start from the bottom as that was the first e-mail. I took off identifying information and financial info. for obvious purposes:

    -------------------------------

    Dear xxxx

    Thank you very much for your quick reply. I talked to the family and advised them that the best way to proceed is you the doing the ability to pay part. They are talking to some people to get the money together. I will call them back after 4PM. Can we pay by debit card, or check or money order? Time is of the essence because of the B2 expiration on 2/11/07. I have the labor certification, (the one I printed off the website, we did not get the signed one from them yet, but it is the same). I have the 2005 tax return. I need to get the bank statements. Can I fax those to you? I also have something like a financial statement for 2006. If the numbers don't add up, you can still help us?

    Thank you so much for helping us. I know you are very busy.


    xxxx

    xxxxwrote:
    Most CPA�s don�t do audited financial statements. Reason is that there is a lot of things from a regulatory point of view that CPA�s have to keep up with in order to do audits. For this reason, most cpa�s won�t do them.

    An audit is a big thing; it is not a small thing. I wouldn�t consider this as an option for you.

    If you want me to do the ability to pay part then it will cost $xxxx.

    I will need: Copy of labor certification, 2005 federal tax returns of company. Bank statements of company for October, November and December 2006. If the numbers aren�t the way they need to be then there are still remedies.

    xxxx


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    From: xxx
    Sent: Sunday, January 07, 2007 12:34 PM
    To: xxx
    Subject: RE:

    Dear xxxxx

    First of all, thank you very much for your help. It is really appreciated. I have been researching this subject and was not able to find anything valuable until I found your name. It is really great that you are helping these people.
    I know your time is very valuable but I forgot to ask you whether or not we have to get the 2006 December bank statement certified or just send the original? If the CPA is not able to do audited financial statement for 2006 (which I doubt) are you available to do it? If we do that do we still need to send 2005 tax return? (Labor was filed on 12/26/06 and certified on 1/4/2007. )
    You are the only one who can help us with this questions. I know you are extremely busy, but I am really trying to do this right for this family. They gave up everything in Hungary, (they made like $400.00 per month and life is more expensive than here), so it would be great hardship for them to go back. As I said they don't even have an attorney here. I don't know if that matters because most of them don't know half of what you guys know.
    Anyways please, let me know how to proceed.

    Thank you very much

    xxxxx



    You have to prove ability to pay from the date that labor was filed with state department of labor. Therefore, if you sent the labor in 2001 then you have to prove ability to pay for 2001 through 2006.

    Audited financial statements are very expensive and probably do not suit your needs (At least $5,000 per year). Every year has to show ability to pay not just current year.

    I can do it but it is pretty expensive. It will range from $xxxxx. You can give me a call with the details and I�ll let you know the chances of success.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    From: xxxxxx
    Sent: Saturday, January 06, 2007 7:26 PM
    To: ny.united@gmail.com
    Subject:

    Hi,

    I heard about you on one of the immigration portals. I am the employer and ready to file I-140 for alien worker. He and his wife are here on B2 visas.
    We are concerned about the ability to pay issue. I heard that you are the best on this.
    The instructions are not clear at all. Do you have to send 3 years of tax returns. 2006 is not done yet, can we send audited financial statements? What is an audited financial statement exactly? What if the company did not have enough net income in 2005 and 2004 but has it in 2006. Can you please help us? As the employer we are willing to help the worker to get the I-140 approved.

    Can you help us? Please, let me know and also how much do you charge.

    Their visa expiring soon, please respond A.S.A.P

    Thank very much
    xxxxxxxx



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  • singhsa3
    03-02 08:40 PM
    Belling the Cat
    Long ago, the mice (folks on this forum) held a general council to consider what measures they could take to outwit their common enemy, the cat (read USCIS). Some said this, and some said that; but at last a young mouse got up and said he had a proposal to make, which he though would meet the case.
    "You will all agree," said he, "that our chief danger consists in the sly and treacherous manner in which the enemy approaches us. Now, if we could receive some signal of her approach, we could easily escape from her. I venture, therefore, to propose that a small bell be procured, and attached by a ribbon round the neck of the cat (read lawsuit to be filled against USCIS) . By this means we should always know when she was about, and could easily retire while she was in the neighborhood."
    This proposal met with general applause, until an old mouse got up and said, "That is all very well, but who is to bell the cat?"
    The mice looked at one another and nobody spoke. Then the old mouse said, "It is easy to propose difficult remedies."





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  • H1BinNY
    07-03 07:00 PM
    I digged all the comments but looks like someone is trying to bury them again and again...

    Probably someone from USCIS





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  • Macaca
    06-28 08:04 PM
    Like I said, after AILA's memo came out yesterday, all the lawyers who were saying "it wont happen" have suddenly flipped and now they are saying "Anything can happen".

    I have been asking this question for the past 1 year. I was always told that USCIS can not retrogress mid-month.

    My guess is that USCIS told the lawyers that they will not retrogress mid month. Now USCIS is flip-flopping. That is why AILA wants to sue USCIS which probably means nothing: USCIS has lot of lawsuits!





    tikka
    07-03 06:38 PM
    http://digg.com/politics/Rep_Lofgren...Bulle tin/who (http://digg.com/politics/Rep_Lofgren_Issues_Statement_on_Updated_Visa_Bulle tin/who)

    It's showing up on the front page now as far as I can tell.

    jazz

    both stories are on top!!
    we can also digg the comments





    ramus
    07-04 11:13 AM
    Cost = 800 (Medical for 2 persons- Average) + 1000 (attorney fees- doesn't matter who pays- company or you) + 30 (photos) + 100( Postage) + 100(others)

    Total = 2000 average . I am not adding application fess since USCIS will send it back if they don't process the application.

    Out of 2000 - Medical is only valid for 1 year. In most of cases you will have to pay attorney again. All you can use is photos. I will say everybody atleast lost 1800 ( This is very minimum - also doesn't matter who pays- company or you).

    So lets say everybody lost 1800. Now depend how many people were ready to file the application..





    Please post good reliable estimate of cost for applying with ALL possible break ups. I know the following only!

    Cost of applying = application fee ($795 ??) + Lawyer fee + others (= medical + pictures + ...)

    Also, which parts are lost if we have to re-apply!



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